Summary
The UP World LNG Shipping Index gained 5.67 points (2.83%) last week, closing at 206.09 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.66%. The UPI has now risen for a third consecutive week, with the weighted index also up more than 4% and a strong 16:4 ratio of advancing to declining stocks. Trading volume increased but remained below the elevated pre-war average. Asian spot LNG prices continue to climb, surpassing $22/mmBtu, as tankers no longer attempt to navigate the Strait of Hormuz — even covertly — according to Energy Aspects. Kpler revised its Strait outlook from de-escalation to a prolonged crisis scenario, forecasting Qatar’s 2026 LNG exports to fall below 27 million tonnes, down from around 80 million tonnes in 2025. COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation led the gainers with +9.43% after three weeks of declines, while Nakilat fell the most at -3.87% on the weakening Qatari export outlook.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks 20 listed LNG shipping companies, gained 5.67 points (2.83%), closing at 206.09 points, while the S&P 500 index lost 0.66%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader View
The UPI has been rising for the third week in a row, and the weighted index (wUPI) also rose—by more than 4%, in fact. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 16:4. Trading volume also increased, but remained below the elevated pre-war average.
Last week, we added time as a third factor to geopolitics and weather. It remains a growing threat, especially for Europe.
According to Reuters, Asian spot LNG prices continue to rise and have already surpassed $22 per mmBtu. This is mainly due to increased danger in the Strait of Hormuz, where, according to Energy Aspects, tankers are no longer attempting to navigate it, even covertly.
Analytics firm Kpler revised its base-case view on the Strait of Hormuz from de-escalation to a prolonged crisis scenario, forecasting that Qatar’s LNG exports will fall below 27 million metric tons in 2026. Kpler had previously estimated Qatar’s 2025 LNG exports at about 80 million metric tons.
For Europe, Argus Media assessed the price at $20.30/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed the August price at $20.518/mmBtu.
Constituents
After three weeks of declines, shares of COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026) posted the strongest gain, rising 9.43%.
Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG) came in second with a 7.12% increase.
While COSCO merely corrected its decline, Dynagas returned to the sideways trend it had broken out of in June.
Only Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NASDAQ: CCEC) managed to surpass the 5% mark, rising by 5.23%. However, it has still not broken through the resistance zone.
Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) gained 4.73%, but continues to trade sideways.
BP (NYSE: BP) made a nice comeback to the level it had fallen from. After gaining 4.58%, it is back near the upper end of the second-quarter range.
The Japanese trio moved in the same direction. NYK Line (TSE: 9101) gained 4.21%, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104) rose by a similar 4.17%, and “K” Line (TSE: 9107) climbed 3%. All three broke out of their ranges to test new highs. After breaking through the key resistance level, “K” Line will have the best prospects, followed by NYK Line, while MOL faces a somewhat longer journey.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX) rose by nearly 4% and broke out of its sideways range.
ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS) also rose by 3.15%, but this was largely a consolidation just below resistance.
ALNG (OSE: ALNG) also gained 3 per cent; the stock is awaiting an extraordinary general meeting and trading sideways in the meantime.
Shell (NYSE: SHEL) posted a 1.21% gain and also returned to the range it was in before the lull.
The only remaining gains are 0.88% (MISC, KLSE: 3816) and 0.59% (Korea Line Corporation, KRX: 005880). MISC is attempting to return to its range—much like Shell did—while KLC continues to move sideways.
Among the declining stocks, Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) lost the most—as expected—down 3.87%. This loss pushes Nakilat back toward the levels seen at the end of March and beginning of April. This comes as no surprise, given reports of a decline in Qatar’s gas exports by more than 50 million metric tons from the originally projected 80 million metric tons (Kpler).
Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG) fell by 2%, but continues to trade sideways. New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE) dropped by 1.15%, and Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE) fell by 0.82%. Excelerate is attempting to regain momentum, but so far without success.
Crystal Ball
Qatar has been temporarily sidelined among the conflict’s losers due to industrial damage to its facilities, whilst US LNG exporters—and European importers—emerge as the clear winners. However, the vulnerable Panama Canal and ongoing US-Chinese tensions warrant attention. We expect most of the rising US gas production will flow towards Europe. New global LNG producers should also benefit from this conflict, as energy source diversification becomes more important than ever—provided importing economies remain healthy enough to absorb higher energy costs.
The outlook remains volatile, but positive in the long term. Companies with spot tankers are benefiting from high rates and longer distances. The gradual phasing out of steamers and the addition of new liquefaction capacity will continue to drive the sector forward.
About UPI
Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based family of stock indices designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide engaged in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index comprises 20 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing more than 65% of the global LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index provides premium services, offering freemium and trial access to charts. With the Freemium plan, users can access the basic UP Index vs S&P 500 chart after completing email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.
Final Note
This report primarily relies on technical analysis using weekly data. The summary section is AI-generated.
Disclosure: The author holds beneficial long positions in the shares of ALNG, EE, FLNG, and NFE, whether through share ownership, options, or other derivatives. This report was prepared in-house and reflects our own opinions. We have received no compensation for it and have no business relationship with any company whose shares are mentioned herein.
Disclaimer: This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. It relies primarily on technical analysis using weekly data. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.