The rally broadens (Week 33-2026)

Broader View

The UPI’s rise gained momentum, with 14 companies contributing to the gain. Seven companies saw their share prices fall. The median price movement was 2.23 per cent, matching the index’s rise. By contrast, trading volume declined.

Whilst the week before last saw Asian companies as the main drivers of the rise, this time companies from other regions joined them.

The geopolitical situation remains unchanged and unstable, with the market slowly coming to terms with the fact that Qatari production capacity will remain shut down for some time. It appears that, apart from US producers, the United Arab Emirates will be the main beneficiary.

According to Friday’s Thomson Reuters summary, LNG prices for Asia rose back to $21.30 per MMBtu, whilst in Europe they remained at $20.60 per MMBtu.

Prompt Asian demand has been steady, with limited requirements emerging in South Asia, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.

Pakistan has been on the sidelines, supported by an improved hydro situation and potential LNG-naphtha, whilst infrastructure bottlenecks in Bangladesh have limited near-term imports. Indian spot demand continues, with cargoes bought above $20/mmBtu, he said.

European gas market fundamentals are likely to remain strained and increasingly challenged by multiple factors, including maintenance at LNG terminals in France until early September and upcoming maintenance work in Norway scheduled throughout that month, said Yahdian Falah, portfolio strategist at the Germany-based energy trading company Trianel.

“A sustained resumption of LNG flows from the Gulf would significantly ease competition with Asian buyers and thus the sustained pressure on TTF. Until that happens, TTF is likely to remain at elevated levels,” he added.

Rates for LNG tankers have fallen to $40,000 for the Atlantic and $69,000 for the Pacific following the redeployment of Qatari tankers to spot deliveries from other LNG producers, according to Spark Commodities.

Constituents

Although the largest gain did not reach double figures, even a seven per cent rise for Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is respectable. Especially as the rise was supported by five companies each gaining around five per cent and one with a six per cent rise.
Chevron built on its July gains and emerged from a brief sideways correction, trading on average volume.

“K” Line (TSE: 9107) also saw average volume during its smooth 6 per cent surge above current highs, continuing its rally from support levels that began in July.

Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN; 5.9 per cent), Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE; 5.05 per cent) and ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS; 5.03 per cent) all surpassed the 5 per cent mark.

Tsakos broke through resistance and closed just above the magnetic resistance level. It should therefore continue to rise further.

Excelerate Energy’s rise corrected its previous post-earnings decline and brought it back to the magnetic resistance levels – an attempt to resume growth must still take place here, as last week’s movement was merely a reaction, not a sustained trend.

ADNOC has risen above its current highs on above-average volume. It is clearly set to continue its upward trend, capitalising on the slowdown in Qatari production.

We have also included two Japanese companies in the group showing growth of almost 5 per cent: NYK Line (TSE: 9101; 4.66 per cent) and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104; 4.61 per cent). The reason is not only their numerical proximity but, above all, their upward trend. We have already mentioned this in previous reports, and it has now been confirmed. NYK Line has reached new all-time highs, whilst MOL is heading towards them at a more measured pace.

Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG) also recorded a very interesting rise during the week, following the announcement of its results. However, this rise was subsequently pared back to a final gain of 4.1 per cent, although the share price closed above the resistance level of the sideways range.

Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG; 2.66 per cent), Shell (NYSE: SHEL; 2.23 per cent) and BP (NYSE: BP; 2.16 per cent) all gained over two per cent.

Dynagas has risen for the fourth week in a row, but this is not particularly noticeable in the overall picture. It is still trading within the range of this year’s volatile prices.

Shell and BP are in a similar position; the current rise was a reaction to the previous week’s decline, so both continue to move sideways, although they remain within striking distance of this year’s highs. This is due to fluctuations in oil prices.

Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NASDAQ: CCEC) gained one per cent; it too is moving sideways just below its highs.

Finally, we’ll mention Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) and MISC (KLSE: 3816), both of which rose by 0.5 per cent.

Nakilat continues to trade near the lower end of this year’s range. However, the price has been even lower for three consecutive periods. Therefore, the current stabilisation at these levels is actually positive.

MISC finds itself in a similar situation, having also reached the lower end of its spring trading range. Even so, prices are higher
than at the start of the year – MISC recorded growth in late winter and is therefore trading quite close to its spring highs, when the absolute peak was 9.04 ringgit.

Once again, the biggest fall – due to low prices and high volatility – was recorded by New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE; -8.47%).

COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026) fell by 5.6 per cent, making the previous three-week rise look more like a correction following a decline. But let’s not jump to conclusions and wait for confirmation.

PAN Ocean (KRX: 028670) fell by 4 per cent, reflecting a pullback from its previous rise to the upper end of the price range established in May this year.

ALNG (OSE: ALNG) continues to trade sideways, having fallen by 2.5 per cent.

Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) is attempting to rise; following its previous rise, it has fallen by 0.5 per cent. It thus remains poised to continue its rise above the key resistance level.

Flex LNG (NYSE: FLNG) fell by 0.13 per cent, although it dipped below the $29 mark at one point during the week. Ultimately, however, it held onto the $30 level and closed at $30.80.

Crystal Ball

Qatar has been temporarily sidelined among the conflict’s losers due to industrial damage to its facilities, whilst US LNG exporters emerge as the clear winners. European importers were shielded from spot price increases thanks to predominantly long-term U.S. contracts. However, these contracts are not sufficient to replenish inventories for the winter, and European companies must return to the market despite Qatar’s continuing export restrictions. We expect most of the rising US gas production will flow towards Europe. New global LNG producers should also benefit from this conflict, as energy source diversification becomes more important than ever—provided importing economies remain healthy enough to absorb higher energy costs.

The outlook remains volatile, but positive in the long term. The gradual phasing out of steamers and the addition of new liquefaction capacity will continue to drive the sector forward.

About UPI

Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based family of stock indices designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide engaged in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index comprises 21 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing more than 65% of the global LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index provides premium services, offering freemium and trial access to charts. With the Freemium plan, users can access the basic UP Index vs S&P 500 chart after completing email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.

Final Note

This report primarily relies on technical analysis using weekly data. The summary section is AI-generated.

Disclosure: The author holds beneficial long positions in the shares of ALNG, EE, FLNG, and NFE, whether through share ownership, options, or other derivatives. This report was prepared in-house and reflects our own opinions. We have received no compensation for it and have no business relationship with any company whose shares are mentioned herein.

Disclaimer: This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. It relies primarily on technical analysis using weekly data. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.