Summary
The UP World LNG Shipping Index lost 3.11 points (1.43%) last week, closing at 214.72 points, while the S&P 500 gained 0.13% — its seventh consecutive weekly gain. The UPI continues to move sideways within a support range bounded by 212 and 219 points, with the median change at -0.52%, the weighted index down 0.3%, and the ratio of advancing to declining stocks at 9:11. Trading volume has returned to pre-war levels a few weeks ago. The geopolitical situation remains unchanged, though natural gas producers are working to increase output and strengthen extraction and liquefaction infrastructure in anticipation of future needs for supply diversification.
Awilco LNG and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation led the decliners, both falling around 6.6%. Awilco launched a secondary offering at NOK 3.25 per share and announced it will be renamed Awilco ASA to reflect its expanded business activities; Q1 results showed a 68% utilisation rate and an increased quarterly loss. Tsakos Energy Navigation fell 2.85% in a pullback from recent highs. Flex LNG declined 1.8% following quarterly results but remains near all-time highs, with management raising revenue guidance by 10% and TCE estimates by 8%. On the positive side, Excelerate Energy led the gainers with +5.37%, attempting a breakout from its sideways range, while Chevron gained 5.2%. Capital Clean Energy Carriers, Golar LNG, and BP each gained around 2.3–2.7%. The long-term outlook remains positive, supported by vessel scrapping and new liquefaction capacity.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks 20 listed LNG shipping companies, lost 3.11 points (1.43%), closing at 214.72 points, while the S&P 500 index gained 0.13%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader View
The UPI continues to move sideways within a support range bounded by 212 and 219 points.
Trading volume remains at pre-war levels; the median UPI movement was -0.52%, and the weighted wUPI index fell by 0.3%. The ratio of advancing to declining stocks was 9:11.
The geopolitical situation remains unchanged. Natural gas producers are striving to increase their output, and there are also plans to strengthen extraction and liquefaction infrastructure—a response to the future need for source diversification that will arise once tensions subside and Qatari exports resume.
Spot rates for tankers fell slightly.
Constituents
The largest declines were recorded by Awilco LNG ASA (OSE: ALNG, -6.63%) and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026, -6.62%). ALNG launched a secondary offering of shares to existing shareholders at NOK 3.25 per share. At the same time, the company will be renamed Awilco ASA due to the expansion of its business activities. From the reported results for the first quarter of this year, we note only a 68% utilisation rate across both ships, particularly for the WilForce. This also resulted in an increased quarterly loss. The share price, however, is moving sideways and has once again reached the support level above NOK 3.25.
COSCO has also returned to its support level, so the attempt at an uptrend from the week before last did not take hold.
The third-largest decline was 2.85% and involved Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN). This was a pullback from the highs following a previous break above resistance.
Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) fell by 2.16%, though its price has continued to fluctuate in both directions throughout the week.
Following its quarterly results, FLEX LNG (NYSE: FLNG) fell by 1.8%, though it remains near its all-time highs. During the week, after the results were released, the price stood at $30.6, but on Thursday it rose again to near the closing price. Two tankers underwent routine maintenance during the quarter, and the exercise of charterer options was also announced. We have already mentioned both in our weekly report. Management presented improved earnings estimates for this year (revenue up 10%, TCE up 8%).
Both Gulf companies also fell. ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS) lost 1.68%, and Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) fell by 1.45%. Both are still trading within their pre-war price range, though ADNOC is at the upper end and Nakilat at the lower end.
NYK Line (TSE: 9101) was the only one of the Japanese trio to decline. It fell by 1.31% and remained within the support zone. Like Korea Line Corporation, NYK Line experienced significant ups and downs during the week but remained at that support level.
Moves of less than one per cent were seen in MISC (KLSE: 3816, -0.85%), New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE, -0.7%), and Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG, -0.52%). MISC and NFE are moving sideways, while DLNG is riding a slightly upward wave without a clear trend.
Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE) recorded the largest gain, up 5.37%. It attempted to break out of the sideways range and surpassed the opening and closing prices, but remained at the magnetic resistance level of the previous highs. Specifically, it broke through them during the week but ultimately fell back below them. The breakout is therefore only partial and was not accompanied by increased volume.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is also moving within a sideways range; its 5.2% gain was sufficient to cover more or less the entire range from bottom to top.
Three companies saw gains starting with the digit two: Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NYSE: CCEC, +2.7%), Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG, +2.41%), and BP (NYSE: BP, +2.33%). After its April slump, CCEC returned to a sideways range, where it continues to hold, and last week did nothing to change that.
Golar LNG is attempting to rise, but so far it has remained at the magnetic resistance level of its previous high. Volume was not above average here either.
BP is also moving sideways. Here, the sideways range formed at the highest price level.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104) halted its previous five-week decline with a 1.5% gain; we will see if this level is sustainable over the long term. “K” Line (TSE: 9107) rose 0.8% within a sideways range; an attempt at a slightly higher gain was rejected for the second week in a row.
Crystal Ball
The second quarter is typically the weakest seasonally, but this year will be different—geopolitical circumstances have knocked nearly 20% of global LNG production offline. While Europe still enjoys a certain advantage over Asia, it now needs gas, and rising prices are hitting the poorest consumers, such as those in Bangladesh, the hardest.
The shortfall in supplies will have to be replaced. We view the return to coal as temporary; we expect a gradual increase in spot supplies and greater geographic diversification of sources, which will bring longer shipping routes and higher demand for tankers. Carriers operating on the US–Europe or Australia–Asia routes are in a more stable position.
The outlook remains volatile, but positive in the long term. Companies with spot tankers are benefiting from high rates and longer distances. The gradual phasing out of steamers and the addition of new liquefaction capacity will continue to drive the sector forward
About UPI
Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based family of stock indices designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide engaged in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index comprises 20 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing more than 65% of the global LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index provides premium services, offering freemium and trial access to charts. With the Freemium plan, users can access the basic UPI vs S&P 500 chart after completing email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.
Final Note
This report primarily relies on technical analysis using weekly data. The summary section is AI-generated.