Summary
LNG shipping stocks eased slightly last week, with the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) dipping 0.35% to 170.11 points while still holding above the key 170 threshold. Trading volumes remained elevated, pointing to vigorous underlying activity even in a generally quiet week. The steepest losses came from New Fortress Energy, which fell 6.8%, while Nakilat slipped 2.3% below its support level. MISC and Cosco Shipping Energy also tested key levels with declines of 3–4%. On the positive side, Exmar rose 8.8%, Awilco LNG advanced 7.3%, and Tsakos Energy Navigation extended its uptrend with a 4% gain. ADNOC LS and Flex LNG also contributed to recent growth, while Japanese carriers largely remained unchanged. Overall, rising volumes suggest that despite muted index movement, underlying battles over the sector’s next direction are intensifying.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks listed LNG shipping companies, lost 0.6 points (0.35%), closing at 170.11 points, while the S&P 500 index lost 0.1%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader view
The last week of August was marked by a relaxed mood and, apart from the return from vacations, also brought a slight return to the values of the previous week. This applies primarily to the individual components of the UPI; the index itself fell only slightly and remained above 170 points. Equally important is that, with one exception, there was no potential change in the trend. However, the trading volume was again above average.
Constituents
The exception is Nakilat (QSE: QGTS), which closed below its support level, losing 2.3%. This may not be significant, as the same level was broken through in June, and the following week saw growth across the entire range.
If we mention that the most significant decline was recorded by New Fortress Energy (NYQ: NFE), at -6.8%, and the most considerable growth by Exmar (BSE: EXM), at 8.8%, we have covered most of the major movements. All that remains is to add the 7.3% growth of Awilco LNG (OSE: ALNG). The remaining movements reached a maximum of four per cent, but mainly were significantly less.
With a loss of 4.1%, Cosco Shipping Energy (SS: 600026) returned above the former resistance level. MISC (KLSE: 3816), on the other hand, fell below its support level, although it lost less, at 3.6%.
Two companies lost a similar 2.3%: Golar LNG (NYQ: GLNG) and Capital Clean Energy Carriers. They also share the commonality that the original upward trend was more pronounced, but the conclusion was ultimately negative. GLNG recovered slightly after attempting to reach a new high, while CCEC tried to return above support to the range, but the attempt was repelled. Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) fared similarly, although in this case the decline was only one-tenth of a per cent.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104) returned to support and sideways movement, losing 2.1%. “K” Line (TSE: 9107) interrupted its attempt to continue growth with a 0.5% decline.
Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) was more successful, growing for the second week in a row by 4%. ADNOC LS (ADX: ADNOC) also continued to grow, adding 3.42%.
Flex LNG (NYSE/OSE: FLNG) also continues to grow, adding 1.7%, as do oil and gas producers with a minority fleet of LNG tankers. Chevron (NYQ: CVX) grew by 1.5%, BP (NYSE: BP) rose by 1.4%, and SHELL (NYSE: SHEL) added 0.8%.
Overall, last week was a quiet one, although rising trading volumes confirm intense underlying battles over the direction of further movement.
Crystal Ball
Our outlook remains optimistic. The sector has matured, has become indispensable to the global energy mix, and is robust. Additionally, we have noted the influence of seasonality, which is another essential factor to consider.
We identify the primary risks associated with non-market geopolitical forces. Increasing the threshold for accepting the use of force to resolve conflicts can quickly change current perceptions. Wars are becoming somewhat more acceptable. In this context, it is helpful to analyse the long-term shipping routes of each fleet.
About UPI
Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based stock index family designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide involved in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index covers 21 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing over 65% of the world’s LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index offers premium services with freemium and trial access to charts. With Freemium, users can access the basic UPI vs. S&P 500 chart after completing an email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.