Movements in the sideline zone (Week 28-2026)

Broader View

The UPI entered its fifth stage of deceleration; so far, this has always been followed by a more pronounced decline. This time, however, the weighted UPI (wUPI) rose, a trend reflected in the ratio of rising to falling companies, which stood at 16:4. It is clear that such modest growth had to follow a significant decline in a major stock. And that is indeed what happened. While the largest gain (among small-cap companies) was 6%, the largest decline was more than 9% and had double the weight. However, trading volume was again below average, which does not support an upward trend.

Geopolitics and weather remain the key factors. According to a weekly Reuters summary, Asian LNG prices have reached a three-week high—the price for August delivery rose to $18 from $16.40 last week. This is due to Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian territory. Nevertheless, several LNG tankers managed to pass through before the latest escalation.

Amid the price gains, Asian premiums relative to Europe have not increased as much as during similar price increases earlier in the
war, as many Asian buyers have already secured their supplies for August and September, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.

In Europe, Argus Media assessed the price at $16.65/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $16.587/mmBtu.

While European gas inventories reached 51% of capacity by early July, market participants are increasingly concerned that current LNG import levels and injection rates may be insufficient to meet winter storage targets, said Aly Blakeway, head of Atlantic LNG at S&P Global Energy.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose to $97,500/day, while Pacific rates dropped to $70,250/day, according to Spark Commodities.

Constituents

Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) posted the largest gain, at 6.13%. It thus moved slightly above the resistance level of a short-term sideways trend. Still, it’s not out of the woods yet, as it remains within the gravitational pull of its previous high—the breakout is not into new territory, but rather to levels the price has already been to and rejected. The breakout has not yet been confirmed, not even by increased volume.

In second place is Shell (NYSE: SHEL) with a +5.4% gain. It, too, posted a relatively large gain, but this alone has not changed anything. It led to the price returning below the price gap, which must still be closed for the upward trend to continue successfully. And here, too, volume was not significantly high.

In third place are three companies with 4% growth: BP (NYSE: BP; +4.81%), Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG; +4.55%), and Chevron (NYSE: CVX; +4.26%).

For all of them, the situation is similar to that of the previous two companies. In other words, this growth may or may not signal a turnaround. BP corrected its decline following the drop from the week before last, as did Chevron. Golar rose to the upper edge of its short-term sideways range but no higher. Trading volumes for all three companies were also below average.

Three other stocks also gained 3 per cent: Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880; +3.77%), Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NASDAQ: CCEC; +3.29%), and Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG; +3.08%).

These three stocks are different. While Korea Line Corporation rose for the second week in a row, offsetting its previous decline, this gain was significantly corrected during the week. Rather than a positive signal, this is more of a negative one. At the same time, however, the price had previously reached a long-term sideways range, which it has now refused to leave. It therefore appears that this is not a negative reaction, but simply a refusal to rise beyond the bounds of this range.

Capital Clean Energy Carriers returned to the upper boundary of the sideways range; an attempt at further growth was rejected. After all, the magnetic pull of previous higher prices is quite strong here, extending all the way to $24, with another range just above it. So the $25 level is the real turning point.

Dynagas also rose for the second week in a row, but even here, that’s not enough to signal a trend reversal—especially given the very low trading volume.

Four companies rose by 2 per cent: Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE; +2.66%), ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS; +2.53%), Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104; +2.52%), and FLEX LNG (NYSE: FLNG; 2.46%).

After breaking out of a sideways range, Excelerate Energy continues to rise modestly, though this growth has been slightly delayed so far this week. The sharp rally in February and March may be to blame, so the stock’s path forward remains uncertain for now.

ADNOC attempted a slight correction after three pullbacks from its highs. And it was successful, as its rise was accompanied by above-average volume.

Mitsui is in the same boat as Korea Line Corporation. Here, too, the decline was halted, but the rally was largely rejected.

The list of rising companies includes four that gained by 1% each: MISC (KLSE: 3816; +1.81%), NYK Line (TSE: 9101; +1.44%), ALNG (OSE: ALNG; +1.39%), and Exmar (EBR: EXM; +1.36%).

MISC is attempting to reenter the trading range it exited three weeks ago, but unsuccessfully. NYK Line, on the other hand, tested both directions within the trading range, but neither attempt led to a breakout. ALNG slightly increased on the gains from the week before last, but started the day below half of that level. So here, too, both sides—sellers and buyers—are locked in a battle. And Exmar saw another week of trading on negligible volume.

Only COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026) saw a significant percentage decline, falling by 9.21%. This marks a continuation of the decline from the highs reached in February and March. However, a significant portion of those gains is still reflected in the price.

The second notable decline—not in percentage terms, but in terms of the company’s weight—was -0.7%, recorded by NAKILAT (QSE: QGTS). Despite the ongoing complex geopolitical developments, this does not appear to be anything significant. The price remains within a sideways trading range, albeit at its lower end.

Finally, let’s mention an interesting decline at “K” Line (TSE: 9107; -0.7%). Paradoxically, it is positive. The price, within a sideways range, rejected declines and remained near the upper edge.

Crystal Ball

Qatar has been temporarily sidelined among the conflict’s losers due to industrial damage to its facilities, whilst US LNG exporters—and European importers—emerge as the clear winners. However, the vulnerable Panama Canal and ongoing US-Chinese tensions warrant attention. We expect most of the rising US gas production will flow towards Europe. New global LNG producers should also benefit from this conflict, as energy source diversification becomes more important than ever—provided importing economies remain healthy enough to absorb higher energy costs.

The outlook remains volatile, but positive in the long term. Companies with spot tankers are benefiting from high rates and longer distances. The gradual phasing out of steamers and the addition of new liquefaction capacity will continue to drive the sector forward.

About UPI

Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based family of stock indices designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide engaged in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index comprises 20 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing more than 65% of the global LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index provides premium services, offering freemium and trial access to charts. With the Freemium plan, users can access the basic UP Index vs S&P 500 chart after completing email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.

Final Note

This report primarily relies on technical analysis using weekly data. The summary section is AI-generated.

Disclosure: The author holds beneficial long positions in the shares of ALNG, EE, FLNG, and NFE, whether through share ownership, options, or other derivatives. This report was prepared in-house and reflects our own opinions. We have received no compensation for it and have no business relationship with any company whose shares are mentioned herein.

Disclaimer: This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. It relies primarily on technical analysis using weekly data. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions.