Summary

The UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) declined by 0.38% last week, closing at 162.63 points. UPI showed a slight downward trend as LNG tankers rerouted from the Gulf of Mexico to Europe, driven by rising gas prices due to colder weather, causing spot rates to decline further in the Atlantic ($9,000/day) and hold in Asia ($15,500/day). The scrapping of older, inefficient tankers, such as Hyundai Greenpia, continues amidst tighter environmental standards. Among constituents, Tsakos Energy Navigation (-8%) and New Fortress Energy (-5.7%) led the declines, while Qatar’s Nakilat (+2.8%) and Awilco LNG (+1.4%) posted gains. Modest changes were seen in Japanese and Malaysian companies. Despite these fluctuations, the short-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a positive long-term view driven by strategic actions and new contracts.

UPI & SPX

Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI), which tracks listed LNG shipping companies, lost 0.61 points, equivalent to 0.38%, closing at 162.63 points. The S&P 500 index gained 1.74%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.

Week 4-2025: Chart of the UP World LNG Shipping Index with S&P 500 (Source: UP-Indices)
Week 4-2025: Chart of the UP World LNG Shipping Index with S&P 500 (Source: UP-Indices)

Broader view

UPI continues to go sideways, albeit still losing slightly. Last week brought some interesting news. ICIS reported that at least seven tankers from the Gulf of Mexico have changed course in the middle of the Atlantic and are heading to Europe instead of Asia.

Due to the weather, consumption is increasing in Europe, and the price of gas is rising, making it more expensive than in Asia.

Interestingly, these tankers took the longer route to Asia, bypassing the Cape of Good Hope and not via Panama.

As reported by Spark Commodities, this also impacts the further decline in spot rates. Atlantic has fallen to $9,000 per day, while Asian is holding at $15,500 per day. As a reminder, our UPI TCE index shows that long-term contracts are around $70,000 per day.

TradeWinds reported that the first tanker scrapped this year is the 29-year-old Hyundai Greenpia, operated by a consortium led by Korea Line Corporation. This continues the expected downsizing of these oldest, most wasteful, and most environmentally unfriendly tankers, which is expected to peak this year.

Trump—Of course, one cannot fail to mention the expected American energy turnaround, but plenty of new projects were permitted before Biden’s freeze on permitting. So this is a reassurance for now and a direction for the future. The developments around the Panama Canal will also be interesting for LNG.

Constituents

While Asian stocks weakened the previous week and US stocks rose this time, the opposite was true. However, the moves were mainly smaller, perhaps due to the shortened US week: Only two companies surpassed five per cent in movement.

Since the UPI was losing, we’ll start with the declining titles. Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) lost the most – 8% – followed by New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE), which fell 5.7%. TEN fell for the second week in a row, likely forming the first corrective peak on the way down. NFE is hovering near resistance formed by the gap from last August and is poised to test it. The path to the $20 level will be apparent if it succeeds.

Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG) and Excelerate Energy (NASDAQ: EE) have lost 4% and 3.9%, respectively. While GLNG has fallen below prior prices, EE is going sideways. However, GLNG is not changing its trend.

Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) lost similar 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively. CVX has bounced off resistance, and KLC has given up on its upside efforts for the previous three weeks.

Two other UPI representatives, Shell (NYSE: SHEL) and Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG), also fell two per cent. While SHEL corrected previous gains, DLNG fell below previous prices. For now, though, it technically continues to trend higher.

Qatar’s Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) showed the most substantial growth, gaining for the third week in a row, this time by 2.8%. In second place is Awilco LNG ASA (OSE: ALNG), which added 1.4% compared to last week, although the weekly trading result is negative. ALNG is trying to break through resistance at NOK 4.62 but has been unsuccessful. Two other companies had a similar positive-negative week. Cool Company (NYSE/OSE: CLCO) is up +0.9% week-over-week, as is Flex LNG (NYSE/OSE: FLNG), which gained +0.5% week-over-week. ALNG has been unable to break above $9, while FLNG has been unsuccessful in increasing above $26.55.

Two Japanese companies, NYK Line and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, notched gains of 1.3% and 1.1%, respectively. Thus, both, still with “K” Line, corrected previous declines to support. Malaysia’s Misc (KLSE: 3816) notched a 1.7% gain but did nothing. Its price is settled near the 2022-2024 level, and although it moved significantly up and down during the week, it all ended with a pullback towards the middle.

Crystal Ball

Our short-term outlook stays unchanged and is cautiously optimistic. The decline of spot rates is still marginal for most UPI constituents, and demand for LNG growth is still strong. Our long-term view is still positive, and we expect situationally or management-driven actions and potential new long-term contracts.

About UPI

Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based stock index family designed to measure the performance of worldwide publicly traded companies involved in the maritime transport of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index covers 19 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing over 65% of the world’s LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index offers premium services with freemium and trial access to charts. With Freemium, users can access the basic UPI vs S&P 500 chart after email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.

Source: UP-Indices.com via LNGshippingStocks.com