Geopolitical decline

Broader View

The UPI reacted to the easing of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz by declining further. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 4:16, so it’s no surprise that the weighted UPI (wUPI) fell by 6.66%. Trading volume, on the other hand, rose by two-thirds, which is linked to the breakout of support levels and the strength of the move.

According to Friday’s Reuters summary, gas prices are reacting to progress toward a peace agreement—and especially to the lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—with a sharp decline. In Asia, gas prices fell by $4 per mmBtu to their lowest level since February. However, concerns about another closure persist. Gas remains cheaper in Europe, as Europe has so far covered its consumption through long-term contracts, while spot supplies have flowed to Asia. According to ICIS, Europe would now need one LNG tanker per day over the summer to make up for the delay in filling storage facilities. Spot rates for LNG tankers currently stand at $93,000 per day for the Atlantic and $80,000 per day for the Pacific, according to Spark Commodities. U.S. gas continues to flow across the Atlantic to Europe and through the Panama Canal to Asia.

Constituents

Among the rising stocks, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026) and NAKILAT (QSE: QGTS) performed well. The former gained 10.29% and the latter 8.21%. COSCO is trying to return to its February–May levels, but is only halfway there. NAKILAT has returned to the range seen at the end of last year, aided by claims of a rapid—on the order of a month—resumption of supplies. Empty tankers have begun slowly returning to the Qatari coast.

The other two gainers were ALNG (OSE: ALNG, +2.52%) and Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE, +0.91%). ALNG has not yet managed to return to its previous range either. Excelerate Energy continues to trade sideways.

A 15% decline pushed New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE) to new lows.

Four companies fell by 8%. Two are from the oil and gas sector, and two are Japanese shipping companies. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104) lost 8.69% after a brief respite and continues to decline from its previous highs. It is now back at the price levels seen in 2025. NYK Line (TSE: 9101) fell 8.49%, returning to a range similar to that of MOL.

BP (NYSE: BP) lost 8.6% and found support at its February low. Shell (NYSE: SHEL) fell 8% but lacks nearby support, as does BP.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX), down 7.26%, rounded out the trio of oil producers (which have marginal involvement in LNG maritime transport via their own fleets). Chevron differs in that it has only just broken out of a high-level sideways range, and its first support level is not expected until around $165.

Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NASDAQ: CCEC) fell by 6.23%, moving to the edge of support within its sideways range.
Two UPI-listed stocks declined by 5%. “K” Line (TSE: 9107) lost 5.59% but remained within its sideways range. After a 5.9% drop,

Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG) is heading toward long-term support at $3.50.

Exmar (EBR: EXM) fell 3.91%, but has been trading sideways for some time due to minimal trading volume in its shares.

Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG), which fell 3.1%, is also holding at its support level.

ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS) and Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) posted modest losses of 2.1%. ADNOC attempted an optimistic breakout to new all-time highs, but it failed. However, the price remains close to another possible attempt. KLC held above last year’s highs following a previous decline.

Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) is still holding near all-time highs, although it has been trading sideways for the third week in a row.

The last company is MISC (KLSE: 3816, -0.12%), which has been trading sideways since March and continued to do so last week.

Crystal Ball

Qatar has been temporarily sidelined among the conflict’s losers due to industrial damage to its facilities, whilst US LNG exporters—and European importers—emerge as the clear winners. However, the vulnerable Panama Canal and ongoing US-Chinese tensions warrant attention. We expect most of the rising US gas production will flow towards Europe. New global LNG producers should also benefit from this conflict, as energy source diversification becomes more important than ever—provided importing economies remain healthy enough to absorb higher energy costs.

The second quarter is typically the weakest seasonally, but this year will be different—geopolitical circumstances have knocked nearly 20% of global LNG production offline. While Europe still enjoys a certain advantage over Asia, it now needs gas, and rising prices are hitting the poorest consumers, such as those in Bangladesh or Pakistan, the hardest.
The outlook remains volatile, but positive in the long term. Companies with spot tankers are benefiting from high rates and longer distances. The gradual phasing out of steamers and the addition of new liquefaction capacity will continue to drive the sector forward.

About UPI

Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based family of stock indices designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide engaged in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index comprises 20 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing more than 65% of the global LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index provides premium services, offering freemium and trial access to charts. With the Freemium plan, users can access the basic UPI vs S&P 500 chart after completing email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.

Final Note

This report primarily relies on technical analysis using weekly data. The summary section is AI-generated.