Summary
The UP World LNG Shipping Index gained 16.49 points (7.77%) last week, closing at 228.77 points — just shy of the 230-point mark — while the S&P 500 fell 1.90%. The advance was driven by a further escalation in the gas crisis: Iran’s retaliatory attack on the Ras Laffan complex damaged 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, with restoration expected to take up to five years. Spot rates remain high at around $180,000 per day, and longer shipping distances are driving demand for additional tankers. The ratio of gainers to decliners was 12:8, with a median gain of 4.94% and trading volume roughly double the average.
Golar LNG led the index with a 22.66% surge, followed by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (+14.1%) and NYK Line (+9%). Korea Line Corporation, Dynagas LNG Partners, and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation each gained around 6–7%, while Tsakos Energy Navigation and Flex LNG both posted approximately 5% gains. New Fortress Energy suffered the steepest decline, falling nearly 28% following its restructuring announcement, which dilutes existing shareholders’ stake to 35%. Awilco LNG lost over 10% as the market continued to digest its capital raise and strategic pivot. The short-term outlook remains volatile; long-term fundamentals stay positive.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks 20 listed LNG shipping companies, gained 16.49 points (7.77%), closing at 228.77 points, while the S&P 500 index lost 1.90%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader View
The UPI resumed its upward trend and easily surpassed the 220-point mark, bringing it just shy of two points below the 230-point threshold. However, not all companies in the index rose; alongside geopolitical events, management actions also played a significant role.
The ratio of gainers to losers was 12:8. The median gain was 4.94%, and trading volume was once again roughly double the average.
For the third consecutive week, the world has been adjusting to the loss of one-fifth of LNG supplies, with further escalation in the gas crisis triggered by Iran’s retaliatory attack on the Ras Laffan gas complex in Qatar following Israel’s shelling of Iranian facilities linked to the South Pars gas fields. 17% of this hub’s export capacity was damaged, and restoration is expected to take up to 5 years. This was a key catalyst for growth among certain UPI companies, such as U.S. LNG producers and European natural gas producers. However, the latter are unable to increase production significantly. The shortage is thus being addressed through rising gas prices in Europe and Asia, along with increased global movement of LNG tankers between producers and consumers.
Spot rates remain high, at around $180,000 per day, according to Spark Commodities, with longer distances driving demand for more tankers. Interestingly, the trend of rejuvenating the global fleet by phasing out first-generation tankers continues. The combination of high spot rates, growing demand for transport capacity, and the ongoing retirement of older vessels creates a structurally favourable environment for the modern LNG fleet.
Constituents
Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG) experienced the largest increase, driven by the suspension of Qatar’s LNG exports. The 22.66% rise followed a correction from the previous week, propelling the price significantly above any nearby resistance level.
The second company with double-digit growth was Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104), which continues to grow strongly after breaking through resistance following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. It increased by 14.1% last week.
The remaining two Japanese companies also rose, with NYK Line (TSE: 9101) ranking third with near-ly 9% growth. “K” Line (TSE: 9107) posted a more modest gain of 5.22%. This is also reflected in the shape of their candlestick charts. While MOL and NYK Line had a clear path ahead after breaking through the aforementioned resistance levels, “K” Line—which was the first to break through a similar resistance level back in mid-February—still had to overcome the resistance from July 2024. And it more or less succeeded last week. However, the resistance level still exerts a magnetic pull: the price was significantly higher during the week, yet the closing price was pushed below this resistance high (i.e., below 2,796 yen).
Three companies recorded gains, starting with a 6. Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) had another highly volatile week, failing to hold onto its highs and closing up 6.82%. It is thus holding onto modest gains from late February and showing an unsuccessful attempt at further growth so far.
Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG) rose 6.72%. After a week of declines triggered by a Trade Winds report stating that two of the partnership’s tankers would be affected by the European Union’s ban on Russian LNG imports starting in 2027, the stock is once again rising.
The third company is COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026), which rose by 6.11%. It, too, corrected the week before last, and some selling pressure persisted as the higher weekly price was rejected, leaving that 6% gain.
Two companies recorded 5% growth: Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) and FLEX LNG (NYSE: FLNG). TEN moved sideways after a period of growth, and FLNG narrowly returned above the $30 mark, having also traded higher during the week. The price rose in response to the extension of two contracts (Flex Resolute and Flex Courageous) through option exercises; these contracts are now extended at least through the first quarter of 2032.
Additionally, Flex Constellation secured a new 15-year contract.
BP (NYSE: BP) posted a gain of just under five per cent. Its gains were also higher during the week.
Conversely, New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE) saw the largest decline following its restructuring announcement. After announcing a restructuring plan involving the spin-off of its Brazilian operations and the issuance of new preferred shares, the stock fell by nearly 28%. The restructuring entails diluting existing shareholders’ stakes to 35%. However, the company’s chances of survival have increased significantly.
Awilco LNG (OSE: ALNG) lost over 10%, with the market reacting mixedly to exposure to both tankers in the spot market and to the announced expansion of activities to include LNG trading and the issuance of new shares. For now, the impact of higher spot rates is prevailing.
Further declines were milder. Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NYSE: CCEC) fell 3.9% and broke through one of its support levels. The next support is around $19, but if it holds above that level, the sideways trend will persist.
Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE) also continues to decline, which is surprising at first glance for a company operating an FSRU. However, most of the company’s revenue comes from natural gas trading, including with QatarEnergy, which may be at risk.
Both Gulf companies, Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) and ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS), have stabilised and moved sideways within the previous week’s range.
Crystal Ball
The outlook remains volatile and unpredictable. Companies with spot LNG tankers are maintaining positive momentum, benefiting from high spot rates and increased distances.
The long-term outlook remains positive. The scrapping of steam vessels and the addition of new liquefaction capacity are pushing the sector higher.
About UPI
Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based family of stock indices designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide engaged in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index comprises 20 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing more than 65% of the global LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index provides premium services, offering freemium and trial access to charts. With the Freemium plan, users can access the basic UPI vs S&P 500 chart after completing email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.
Final Note
This report primarily relies on technical analysis using weekly data. The summary section is AI-generated.