Summary
The UP World LNG Shipping Index declined 6.94 points (3.16%) last week, closing at 212.28 points — its first weekly loss since the start of the year — while the S&P 500 fell 1.60%. The ratio of gainers to decliners was 6:13, though most companies recorded smaller losses than their gains the previous week. Markets are beginning to absorb the initial shock of the Iran conflict, waiting for future development: spot tanker rates have eased but remain attractive at around $160,000 per day, and efforts to replace Qatari gas are underway, with a first tanker sailing from the US around the Cape of Good Hope to Asia for the first time in a while.
Awilco LNG, last week’s top gainer, led the decliners as the market continued to digest the announced capital raise and strategic pivot into LNG trading. COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation gave back 12.4% after two consecutive weeks of 20% gains. Further notable declines were posted by Excelerate Energy (–6.59%), Capital Clean Energy Carriers (–6%), and Flex LNG (–5.3%). On the positive side, Shell (+5.58%), BP (+5.5%), and Chevron (+3.62%) advanced, as did all three Japanese majors. The short-term outlook remains risk-elevated; long-term fundamentals stay positive.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks 20 listed LNG shipping companies, lost 6.94 points (3.16%), closing at 212.28 points, while the S&P 500 index lost 1.60%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader View
The UPI declined for the first time since the beginning of the year, but most companies experienced smaller losses than their gains the previous week.
The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 6: 13. Trading volume was again above average but lower than the previous week. The median decline was 2. 88%.
After the initial shock of the first week of Iran´s war, markets are absorbing the news and settling down slightly. Gas prices and spot rates for maritime transport have fallen. Spot tanker rates remain attractive, at around $160,000 per day. However, the attempt to replace Qatari gas continues; for the first time in a while, a tanker has sailed from the U. S. around the Cape of Good Hope to Asia. The gas shortage primarily affects Asia; according to Reuters, countries such as Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, and Bangladesh are experiencing it. Bangladesh has already had to raise electricity prices due to spot gas supplies.
Restoring full Qatari exports will take weeks or months from the start of the process. Nevertheless, once safe LNG production and transport from the Persian Gulf region are secured, it is in everyone’s best interest to resume production as swiftly as possible.
Efforts to diversify and secure supplies further are underway. For example, Czech energy company ČEZ (PSE: CEZ)is negotiating to lease part of an American liquefaction terminal’s capacity, which would allow it to avoid spot purchases and simultaneously enhance its ability to trade gas by offering it on the spot market. This will likely involve the terminal operated by Venture Global (NASDAQ: VG), which has, coincidentally, announced its final investment decision (FID) and financing for the second phase of the Calcasieu Pass 2 terminal. Japanese banks will provide financing, and Japanese and South Korean companies will be the buyers of LNG from this new terminal.
For Europe, the key concern is the fill level of storage facilities ahead of winter, although this is not an urgent matter. We believe this issue is often overstated: Last year, the storage facilities were not filled until the end of the third quarter, and even then, there were fears of panic. While last year’s situation was due to waiting for lower gas prices, now the reasons are more serious, but there remains ample time. The winter season has only just ended.
Constituents
Due to the decline in the index, we will commence with the companies that experienced a fall. The most significant drop was suffered by the company that had risen the most the previous week—Awilco LNG (OSE: ALNG). This reflects the lingering effects of the measures announced at the end of the previous week, which included expanding the company’s operations to incorporate LNG trading and, most importantly, issuing new shares. However, owing to a lower break-even point and high spot rates, the share price has stabilised considerably above the subscription price for the new shares. The closing price was NOK 3.9, while the subscription price is NOK 3.25. The week’s volatility is also reflected in the higher share trading volume, which is approximately 10 times the long-term average.
The second-largest loss was experienced by COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026), which declined by 12.4% after two weeks of 20% increases. Although the current candle on the candlestick chart completely engulfed the body of the previous candle, the upward gap confirms that the trend remains positive. Here, too, trading volume was substantially above average, though lower than during the previous week.
Further declines are now less than 10%, but some seem more significant and could signal a shift in trend. For Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG), the 8.79% drop is at least a warning or a complication. Here, the price has settled into a sideways range after a breakout, and this attempt at growth has likely ended.
Another infrastructure firm and gas trader, Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE), declined for the second consecutive week, reaching support levels established by prices from 2024 and 2025. The weekly change was -6.59%, and trading volume was average.
Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NYSE: CCEC) also dropped 6% and continues to move sideways. The decline has lasted for three weeks now, with the price near support; however, the fall was halted there, and the price was pushed slightly higher at the end of the week. Trading volume remains low.
We haven’t mentioned Exmar NV (EBR: EXM) for a while, so let´s look at it now. Shares of the company continue to trade within a sideways range. Last week, it covered almost the entire range, falling from resistance to support, a down move of 5.6%.
Flex LNG (NYSE: FLNG) also experienced a correction after previous gains. Despite a 5.3% decline, the breakout from the earlier sideways trend remains successful, although it failed to maintain above $30. Trading volume here is also above average.
Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG) approached its previous resistance level again, failing to leverage the week’s bullish momentum and ending with a 4.51% decline following Friday’s quarterly results release.
MISC (KLSE: 3816) also declined despite a strong start to the week; however, it maintains its upward trend and the positive gains from the previous week.
Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) fell by 3.3% and entered a short-term range, where it seems to be contemplating its next move.
Shares of Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) declined 2.88%, falling for the second consecutive week. However, despite the wide fluctuations in recent weeks, the price remains in the upper part of the upward trend. The price is therefore more volatile than on a downward trajectory.
Both Gulf companies stabilised somewhat, awaiting future developments. ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS) declined by 2.12%, while Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) fell by 1%.
Conversely, Shell (NYSE: SHEL, +5.58%), BP (NYSE: BP, +5.5%), Chevron (NYSE: CVX, +3.62%), and all three Japanese companies increased in value. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104, +2.65%), NYK Line (TSE: 9101, +1.79%), and “K” Line (TSE: 9107, +1.4%).
After the initial shock of the war, a brief calm settled, accompanied by tense anticipation of what lies ahead. That naturally doesn´t mean the problem is solved, but the initial shock is away.
Crystal Ball
In the short term, geopolitical events have significantly raised the risk. The long-term outlook remains positive. The scrapping of steam vessels and the addition of new liquefaction capacity are pushing the sector higher.
About UPI
Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based family of stock indices designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide engaged in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index comprises 20 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing more than 65% of the global LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index provides premium services, offering freemium and trial access to charts. With the Freemium plan, users can access the basic UPI vs S&P 500 chart after completing email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.
Final Note
This report primarily relies on technical analysis using weekly data. The summary section is AI-generated.