Summary
The UP World LNG Shipping Index gained 0.88% to 164.96 points in the first week of 2026, outperforming the S&P 500’s 1.03% decline. The recovery was modest, with 12 constituents rising against nine falling. The median movement was +0.73%, though volume remained below average, at summer levels. UPI continues trading sideways near long-term support—a pattern established throughout 2025 and persisting into the new year. This marks a critical year for the sector as new LNG capacity ramps up and the theory of shifting contract ratios from long-term to spot begins its first real test.
BP led the gains at 4.55%, followed by Chevron (+3.92%) and Shell (+3.61%), though their limited LNG fleets limit UPI impact. Golar LNG’s 2.43% rise carries more weight at 20% of the index, though it remains precariously at support. The Japanese trio posted modest gains of 1-2%, while Nakilat recovered 1.1% to a 5-week high on very low volume. On the downside, Awilco LNG fell 6.84%, New Fortress Energy dropped 5.13%, and Tsakos Energy Navigation declined 2.7%—with the latter’s warning of a potential change in the downward trend remaining valid as it tests support levels. Spot charter rates continued to decline to $71,000/day (Atlantic) and $55,000/day (Pacific) per Spark Commodities, though Europe’s significant cold spell supports demand. With Q4 earnings approaching and new capacity coming online, 2026 promises to test the sector’s resilience.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks listed LNG shipping companies, gained 1.44 points (0.88%), closing at 164.96 points, while the S&P 500 index lost 1.03%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader View
UPI strengthened at the turn of the calendar year, albeit at low volume. In any case, the growth that saved the annual performance at the very end of last year did not materialise this year. UPI and its companies continue to trade sideways, near their long-term support level.
Median growth was 0.73%. Although below average, volume was at summer levels. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 12:9. As the median and overall growth indicate, movements were moderate. Geopolitical developments will once again affect market sentiment, this time in the US. We therefore expect continued high volatility, especially given the prevailing sideways trend, as already mentioned.
Nevertheless, the LNG shipping sector will not be caught up in the events alone. The economic results for the last quarter, and above all, the gradual ramp-up of new LNG capacity this year, will undoubtedly bring a revival. Spot rates, according to Spark Commodities, continue to fall, standing at over $71,000 per day for the Atlantic and $55,000 per day for the Pacific. Europe remains the primary recipient of LNG, partly due to the significant cold spell. Even in Prague, in the heart of Europe, nighttime temperatures are expected to be around -10°C. We can be glad this is happening this year and not in previous years. But back to the topic at hand—this year is the first in which our theory of a shift in the ratio of spot and long-term contracts in favour of the former will begin to be tested.
Constituents
The situation among UPI components was calm, and, with a few exceptions, the movements did not change the sideways trend. Before Christmas, we warned of a possible downward trend change at Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN). This warning remains valid, not because of the current 2.7% decline, but because of testing and falling below potential support levels.
The second exception, this time upward, is Nakilat (QSE: QGTS). Nakilat tested lower prices below the current support in its weekly movement and, after a 1.1% increase, closed at its highest level in five weeks. However, the volume was very low.
The gas and oil trio recorded the highest growth. BP (NYSE: BP) grew by 4.55%, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) added 3.92%, and Shell (NYSE: SHEL) by 3.61%. Of course, given the limited LNG fleets, their impact on the UPI is low.
On the contrary, the 2.43% growth shown by Golar LNG (NYSE: GLNG), which has a 20% weight in the index, has a different impact. However, this movement does not resolve anything for the company itself, which remains on the brink of support.
Also, the second trio worth noting is the Japanese trio. In our previous report, we said attempts at growth, albeit from the lower end of the range. All three companies recorded positive values. Mitsui O.S.K Lines (TSE: 9104, +1.9%) gained the most, followed by “K” Line (TSE: 9107, +1.09%) and NYK Line (TSE: 9101, +1.05%).
Excelerate Energy (NYQ: EE) is approaching the upper resistance level, up 1.75%. On the other hand, Flex LNG (NYSE: FLNG) rebounded slightly from support, up 0.61%, although there were attempts at stronger growth during the week.
ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS) also reached the top of the range, rising by 0.85%.
The most significant decline, which in itself means nothing, as it moved the company to support, was seen at Awilco LNG (OSE: ALNG). The company lost 6.84%. Spot rates for one of the company’s two ships continue to have a significant impact here.
Even another significant 5.13% decline does not signal a change in trend, as we are used to wilder movements at New Fortress Energy (NYQ: NFE). Looking at the weekly candlestick charts, this could be described as consolidation.
Similarly, Capital Clean Energy Carriers’ (NYSE: CCEC) 4.22% decline led “only” to a move towards support.
In the case of Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG), it is difficult to say whether the 2.9% decline is the first correction in an attempted rise or the end of the increase.
Similar movements, albeit at different ends of the range, were observed in Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880) and MISC (KLSE: 3816). With similar losses of around 0.75%, KLC fell for the fourth week in a row, but this may be a correction of the previous enormous growth and thus a continuation of the attempt to grow. MISC corrected at resistance but remains ready for further attempts to grow.
Crystal Ball
Overall, the movements do not indicate any change in trend until the end of the year. Looking at individual companies, there is room for a decline, although for UPI as a whole, it would confirm a breakthrough in support.
The late-summer rise was rejected, and UPI returned to its previous range, where it now trades. This area provides firm support. In the short term, we estimate a rise in volatility of UPI´s constituents.
Our outlook remains positive in the long term. Rising spot rates, the scrapping of steam vessels, and new liquefaction capacities push the sector higher.
About UPI
Established in 2020, the UP World LNG Shipping Index is a rules-based stock index family designed to measure the performance of publicly traded companies worldwide involved in the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This unique index covers 21 companies and partnerships worldwide, representing over 65% of the world’s LNG carrier fleet in 2020. The UP Index provides premium services, offering freemium and trial access to charts. With Freemium, users can access the basic UPI vs. S&P 500 chart after completing an email registration. The trial includes full access for fourteen days.
Final Note
This report primarily relies on technical analysis using weekly data.